Capital City Housing Market

CoreLogic RP Data released results for capital city housing market performance to the end of the financial year this week.  The indices showed that capital city dwelling values were 9.8% higher over the financial year, ranging from a 16.2% gain in Sydney through to a 2.9% decline in Darwin.  

Private sector credit data for May 2015 was released by the Reserve Bank (RBA) recently

The data showed that over the month credit rose by 0.5% and over the year it has increased by 6.2%.  The data shows that residential property is largely fuelling the growth in credit, furthermore it accounts for a record high 61.1% of all outstanding credit while business credit is at a record low 33.0%.  Looking at housing credit, owner occupier credit rose by 0.4% in May and by 5.7% over the 12 months to May. Investor credit advanced by a greater 0.8% over the month and by 10.4% over the 12 months.  APRA's limit on investment credit growth of 10%pa has been widely publicised and the data shows investor credit is growing at a rate slightly above this level.  It should be noted that the annual increase in investor credit has remained at 10.4% for three consecutive months, perhaps we are seeing early signs of lending criteria changes impacting on the pace of investor credit growth.  Most of the publicised changes to lending policies started taking effect in May so it will be interesting to see over the coming months what, if any, impact this has on the rate of housing credit growth.

Building approvals data from May 2015 was released recently by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).  The data showed that in May 2015 there were 19,414 dwellings approved for construction across the country which was just -2.9% lower than the record high monthly number of approvals.  Dwelling approvals increased by 2.4% over the month and were 17.6% higher year-on-year.  House approvals fell by -8.5% over the month and were -2.8% lower year-on-year.  Unit approvals increased by 15.2% over the month and were 46.2% higher year-on-year.

The higher supply levels in the unit sector is likely to be a primary reason why unit values are increasing at a slower pace than house values.

Number of homes for sale

Residential property listings advertised for sale over the four weeks ending 28/06/2015

Capital City	No of New Listings	12 Month Change (%)	No of Total Listings	12 Month Change (%)
Sydney	7,169	10.0%	16,614	-19.1%
Melbourne	7,153	9.2%	26,225	-14.6%
Brisbane	4,051	7.0%	18,260	-0.7%
Combined Capitals	24,981	5.5%	94,891	-6.5%

 

State	No of New Listings	12 Month Change (%)	No of Total Listings	12 Month Change (%)
Sydney	12,477	18.3%	51,726	-11.2%
Melbourne	10,364	11.2%	51,912	-9.2%
Brisbane	9,906	10.3%	63,835	0.1%
National	42,842	11.3%	233,336	-3.9%

Note that sales listings are based on a rolling 28 day count of unique properties that have been advertised for sale.

The number of new homes being advertised for sale has fallen over the past week along with a rise in total listings.  Despite the increase, total listings nationally are -3.9% lower than the number from a year ago while capital city listings are -6.5% lower.  Over the past four weeks there have been 42,842 newly advertised properties added to the market which is 11.3% more than at the same time one year ago.  A similar trend can be seen across the capital cities where 24,981 new listings hit the market over the past four weeks which is 5.5% higher than at the same time last year.

Meanwhile, although total capital city stock is lower than a year ago, it is being fuelled by a significant decline in listings compared to a year ago in Sydney (-19.1%) and to a lesser degree Canberra Melbourne (-14.6%), and Canberra (-13.7%).

Total listings in Sydney are still lower than in each of Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.