Property Insights | Settlement trends diverged across states in 2024

Source: PEXA

Key Findings: Calendar Year 2024

• QLD retained the lead for the highest number of property settlements with 198,019 in 2024, followed by NSW (194,729) and VIC (187,944).  
• Property purchases in 2024, 17.3% higher than in 2023. This increase in aggregate value came despite declining or stagnating property prices in some capital cities during 2024. 
• The annual total number of settlements in 2024 was 13.2% less than the COVID-related peak in activity in 2021, but 14.4% higher than in 2020. 
• The aggregate value of settlements reached a new peak in 2024 and was 64.2% higher than in 2020.  

Key findings: December quarter 2024 

• Settlement volumes in the Dec-24 Qtr were 5.9% higher than the previous quarter and 3.2% higher than one year earlier. 
• The aggregate value of settlements in the Dec-24 Qtr was 10.8% higher than the previous quarter and 12.0% higher than one year earlier.
• The annual spring selling season peak is less pronounced in QLD’s property market compared to NSW, VIC and SA. Reflecting this, QLD settlement volumes grew by just 2.9%q/q in the Dec-24 Qtr compared to 7 to 9%q/q in other states. 

Macroeconomic drivers for Australia’s property markets in 2024

• Economic growth slowed noticeably through 2024, with real GDP growing by just 0.3%q/q and 0.7%y/y in the Sep-24 Qtr, despite support from income tax cuts from 1 July 2024, energy cost subsidies, decelerating inflation and a stable interest rate environment. Australia has been in a ‘per capita recession’ since early 2023, with real GDP, real household income and household consumption all fell on a per capita basis. This has undermined household and business confidence and willingness to invest. 
• The labour market remained remarkably resilient throughout 2024. The unemployment rate remained low, at around 4.0% through the year to November 2024.
• Adult population grew at a record rate of 2.8% in the year to June 2024, following growth of 2.6% to June 2023, due to very rapid net migration. Surging arrivals plus fewer departures has added over 1.1 million adults (aged 15+ years) in just two years.
• New home construction is not keeping pace with ongoing strong demand. New housing commencements in Jun-24 Qtr totalled 40,293, well below the quantity needed to meet existing demand, or to meet the long-term National Housing Accord target of around 60,000 new homes per quarter. 
• Changes to state-based property taxes, transaction charges and regulations may have influenced the timing and type of property transactions in some locations during 2024. While it is not possible to quantify the impact of individual policy changes, anecdotal evidence suggests that some changes to property taxes and regulations may have influenced the number and composition of transactions in VIC and QLD, with flow-on effects for other states’ property markets. For example, property sales by investors seem to have increased in Victoria in response to changes to taxation and rental regulations for residential property, with other states reporting an increase in interstate investor purchases.